Table of Contents

From Scott Alexander’s1 post Predictions For 2022, on Astral Codex Ten:


Sam Marks and Eric Neyman have kindly turned this tradition into a contest.

If you want, you can go to their form and predict the same set of questions I did (minus the personal and redacted ones). Use the same rules I did: no peeking at the prediction markets, and no more than five minutes of research per question. If you don’t know anything about a question, you can leave it blank and it will get filled with my prediction by default.

The winner will get eternal glory (realistically: mentioned on an Open Thread) and a free ACX subscription.

  • Read the contest description/rules here
  • Give feedback on the contest here
  • And once again, the form where you take the contest is here

Question Topics and Aggregated Predictions

My Predictions

Question Rodeo’s Prediction Scott’s Prediction FP’s Prediction Yglesias’s Predictions Outcome
Biden approval rating (as per 538) is greater than fifty percent 35% 40% - -  
At least $250 million in damage from a single round of mass protests in US 40% 10% - -  
PredictIt thinks Joe Biden is most likely 2024 Dem nominee 72% 80% - -  
PredictIt thinks Donald Trump is most likely 2024 GOP nominee 65% 60% - -  
Beijing Olympics happen successfully on schedule 97% 99% - - YES
Major flare-up (worse than past 5 years) in Russia/Ukraine conflict 60% 50% - 40% YES
Major flare-up (worse than past 10 years) in Israel/Palestine conflict 10% 5% - -  
Major flare-up (worse than in past 50 years) in China/Taiwan conflict 3% 5% - -  
Honduran ZEDEs legally crippled to the point where no reasonable person would invest in them further 5% 5% - -  
New ZEDE approved in Honduras 40% 30% - -  
Gamestop stock price still above $100 20% 30% - -  
Bitcoin above 100K 15% 20% - -  
Ethereum above 5K 15% 20% - -  
Ethereum above 0.05 BTC 90% 90% - -  
Dow above 35K 92% 90% - -  
Dow above 37.5K 50% 40% - -  
Inflation for the year below five percent 63% 90% - -  
Unemployment below five percent in December 68% 50% - -  
Google widely allows remote work, no questions asked 59% 50% - -  
Starship reaches orbit 92% 90% - -  
Fewer than 10K daily average official COVID cases in US in December 2022 34% 20% - -  
Fewer than 50K daily average COVID cases worldwide in December 2022 5% 1% - -  
>66% US population fully vaccinated (by current standards) against COVID 78% 70% - -  
India’s official case count is higher than US 20% 5% - -  
Medical establishment reverses course and officially says any of Vitamin D, HCQ, or ivermectin is actually effective against COVID 23% 1% - -  
FDA approves a COVID indication for fluvoxamine 55% 60% - -  
Some new variant not currently known is greater than 25% of case 80% 60% - -  
Most people Scott sees in his local grocery store on December 31st are wearing masks 69% 60% - -  
Masks still required on US domestic flights 50% 60% - -  
CDC recommends that triple-vaxxed people get at least one more vax 75% 70% - -  
China has fewer than 100,000 COVID cases this year (official estimate) 60% 30% - -  
No new real-money prediction market becomes bigger than Polymarket 65% 70% - -  
Manifold Markets is still alive and active 40% 30% - -  
New legal US real-money prediction market at least half as big as Kalshi 16% 5% - -  
New illegal but easy-to-use market satisfying the above 36% 20% - -  
Inflation for the year under three percent 65% 80% 80% -  
Democrats will lose their majorities in the House and Senate 93% 90% 95% 90%  
Supreme Court will overturn Roe v. Wade 68% 60% 65% -  
Emmanuel Macron will be reelected president of France 80% 65% 65% -  
Jair Bolsonaro will be reelected president of Brazil 35% 50% 55% -  
Bongbong Marcos will be elected president of the Philippines 70% 60% 55% -  
China will NOT reopen its borders at any point during the first half of 2022 75% 90% 80% -  
Chinese GDP will continue to grow for the first 3/4 of the year 90% 90% 95% -  
20% of US kids between 0.5 and 5 years old will get at least one COVID vaccine by year’s end 70% 65% 65% -  
WHO will designate another Variant Of Concern 80% 75% 75% -  
12 billion COVID shots will be given out globally by November 1st 85% 80% 80% -  
At least one country will have less than 10% of people vaccinated with two shots by November 1st 78% 95% 70% -  
A psychedelic drug will be decriminalized/legalized in at least one more US state 70% 75% 75% -  
AI will discover a new drug promising enough for clinical trials 87% 85% 85% -  
US government will NOT renew the ban on funding gain-of-function research 67% 60% 60% -  
The Biden administration will set the social cost of carbon at $100/ton or more 61% 70% 70% -  
2022 will be warmer than 2021 91% 80% 80% -  
Kenneth Branagh’s Belfast will win Best Picture 43% 30% 55% -  
Norway will win the most medals at the 2022 Winter Olympics 57% 60% 60% -  
Democrats lose at least two Senate seats 83% 80% - 80%  
Democrats lose fewer than six Senate seats 78% 80% - 80%  
Nancy Pelosi announces retirement plans 63% 70% - 70%  
Joe Biden is still president 93% 70% - 70%  
No military conflict between the PRC and Taiwan 93% 90% - 90%  
Saudi Arabia and Israel establish diplomatic relations 64% 50% - 60%  
Fewer US Covid deaths in 2022 than in 2021 97% 90% - 80%  
Emmanuel Macron re-elected 74% 60% - 60%  
Liz Cheney loses primary 87% 80% - 80%  
Some version of USICA passes Congress 60% 70% - 70%  
Lula elected president of Brazil 35% 50% - 60%  
China officially abandons Covid Zero 50% 70% - 70%  
Additional booster shots of mRNA vaccines authorized for seniors 74% 80% - 80%  
The Fed ends up doing more than its currently forecast three interest rate hikes 50% 60% - 60%  
Viktor Orbán loses power in Hungary 45% 60% - 60%  
Sinn Fein becomes the largest party in the Northern Ireland assembly 50% 60% - 60%  

Outcomes

[pending]

Performance

[pending]

[pending]

Notes

Cover Image

The cover photo for this page was likely taken by jbc. I found the photo on Unsplash. To my knowledge, my use of this photo is permissible under Unsplash’s license: “Unsplash grants you an irrevocable, nonexclusive, worldwide copyright license to download, copy, modify, distribute, perform, and use photos from Unsplash for free, including for commercial purposes, without permission from or attributing the photographer or Unsplash. This license does not include the right to compile photos from Unsplash to replicate a similar or competing service.

Footnotes